Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Brief Predictions on Future T2 Metagame

This is just a fun exercise I'm doing. For the next big Standard tournament, I expect to see...

Same Amount
Mono Red Aggro
Spreading Seas
Junk/GW Aggro
GW Tokens
Barely Boros
Naya Lightsaber
RWU Control
Eldrazi Elves
Magical Christmas Land
Mono White X
4c Jund

Although there could be a potential upset of RWU Control decks depending on how good people are at convincing their teammates to pilot RWU. Pros always sort of WANT to play the traditional-looking Control deck because Control gives them... well, Control. And if they simply pilot it well and have the right build, it has a good chance of getting them out of the sea of Jund into Top 8. I think most will ultimately bring Jund, but just talking about RWU as a good possibility may turn enough heads.

If I were going to a big Standard Tournament within the next week or so, I would bring Mono Red. Why? Playing Jund in a room full of Jund is not appealing to me, nor does it feel like it gives me any kind of edge. It does present the best chances for winning, PERHAPS, but knowing I lack stamina, I would go with the most brainless deck. Which is actually even good in a room full of Jund, so why not?

Jund seems like a brainless deck, but you shouldn't play it on autopilot. Making any kind of mistake in the mirror, however negligible it seems, will blow you out. You have to always be on your toes. After 9 rounds of that, wouldn't your brain just die? I would feel more Zombie than Human after that excursion.

Since Jund is the Menace, Mono Red will be the Menace Beneath the Menace. Some decks will bring powerful tools against Mono Red, and some matchups may just be unwinnable. But if you hit the right notes at the tournament, it will lead you straaaight up to the top. And really, the more Jund the better!

I'm not saying you should pilot Mono Red or even get the cards for it. But if there were a GP, like, tomorrow, I would hop on that train. For FNM, you have better chances with something else. Junk, GW, Boros, RWU, Bant, or Naya should be your alternatives to Jund. Even Vampires if you're really good with the deck, and you are really good at drawing Mind Sludge -- maybe you just run 3. Of course, it depends also on how competitive your FNM is. I'm imagining a medium-level of competition. So half the room will be skilled and have competitive decks at least; the other half will either have rogue decks or be poorly piloting known decks.

If the FNM is highly competitive, you have to simply judge the ratios of decks in the room and plan accordingly. Or just bring the deck that "beats" whoever the best players are. Generally if you make sure you can beat the best players in the room, you have an in. If FNM isn't competitive, bring Jund because there is no way you'll go wrong with it.

Spreading Seas is hilarious, and it could also do really well. But if you show up with it all the time, people will become gradually more prepared... so don't overuse the power of the Seas. OR anticipate the hate and plan ahead. Keep changing your list so that people get caught off guard. (For example, there is a SUPER-Cascade version of Seas that could throw people for a loop.)