Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Early Price Check [M11]

Usually now is the time to speculate - when stores are preselling cards. And boy are people speculating. I like looking at eBay prices because these reflect demand a little better. But I'll also be looking at SCG, CFB, and CSI. That's Star City Games, Channel Fireball, and Cool Stuff Inc.

What's hot and what's not? What's going up? What is dropping in price because of extra supply? How are prices getting affected by news of certain cards not coming back?

I'll be tracking the Mythics mostly and some rares.

SCG = StarCityGames
CFB = Channelfireball
CSI = CoolStuffInc
All = All of the above
eBay = eBay

Price $

Baneslayer Angel
30 (eBay)
35 (All)
In just a short few weeks, Baneslayer has gone down from 50-dollar card to a more reasonable $30. I would personally buy them now. I feel they will not be at these prices for very much longer. Also, if you've never owned a Baneslayer before, now is the perfect time to start.
Knight Exemplar
4-7 (eBay)
7 (CSI)
8 (SCG)
12 (CFB)
Very cool card, but the trend with rares is usually down, regardless of how cool they are. $5 is a reasonable price right now, while demand is high and supply is short. Later on they will drop more. If you can hold off on your Knight cravings, you might be better off.
Sun Titan
8-11 (eBay)
8 (CFB)
10 (SCG, CSI)
One of my favorite Titans AND the Prerelease Promo. Getting your hands on one of these will be pretty easy, but I think demand is higher than that. Whether the prices will go down or up is hard for me to say. 
Conundrum Sphinx
2-3 (eBay)
3-4 (All)
Patrick Chapin and Brian Kowal are openly in favor of this card, and such hype will drive up the price even if it's just by $.50-$1. I bought mine off SCG for $2 each just yesterday, and now they're $3. Talk works. Whether it will actually be good, up in the air. I have a prickly feeling that it isn't good enough, but I'm happy with owning 4 until something happens. Worst, it will go down to $1 each. Best, it will go up to $5. 
Frost Titan
3-4 (eBay)
Not yet available in stores
This is my least favorite of the Titans, and it also doesn't seem to have any constructed playability. I doubt it will be more than a bulk Mythic. 
Time Reversal
19-23 (eBay)
30 (SCG)
23 (CSI)
25 (CFB)
New Timetwister is demanding a large price on the market. Yet I have to wonder what has got everybody so excited. But don't take my word for how unexciting it is, ask Patrick Chapin. Maybe people are just imagining scenarios where this card has no drawback. But it has a drawback. It's a pretty glaring drawback. Seems pretty brilliant in most multiplayer scenaios however.
Captivating Vampire
3-4 (eBay)
3 (SCG)
4 (CSI)
5 (CFB)
Vampire fans will love this card. It's clever how they bookmarked the Core sets around Zendikar with two different Vampire lords. I wonder if Vampires are here to stay or just a phase. Either way this card seems reasonably priced for now. Will probably drop as Standard and Vampires become less relevant.
Hoarding Dragon
<1 (eBay)
2 (All)
Very curious design. Currently going for bulk prices. And yet it does seem to have some niche potential - presumably once Scars comes out. But for now it is safe to say it is fair at bulk price.
Inferno Titan
2-4 (eBay)
4 (SCG)
5 (CSI, CFB)
I'm not terribly impressed by this one either. Feels bulk Mythic.
Elvish Archdruid
This card is seeing a reprint, but the prices haven't been affected because it's been only a short time since the news of its return. I'm guessing its price is pretty stable though as it is.
Garruk Wildspeaker
6-10 (eBay)
9 (All)
Garruk has dropped slightly since it is getting reprinted yet again but remains one of the valuable cards. I think all of the original 5 planeswalkers will maintain their value, and if they drop it'll be at most by $1.
Obstinate Baloth
4-6 (eBay)
6 (SCG)
This card most certainly will see some Constructed play, particularly while Jund is still a menace. I do not rate is as highly as Vengevine, but it will be a solid role-player. I am not optimistic about its price staying at $6 however.
Primeval Titan
15 (eBay)
14 (CFB)
25 (SCG)
Holy Ba-geez are Mythics pricey. But this one seems somewhat justified - the ability on this one is more powerful than some may realize, as you can fetch any kind of land, not just basics. Standard lands are somewhat limited, but we still have access to some game-winners in Sejiri Steppe or Smoldering Spires. Or perhaps 2 Colonnades to make winning inevitable in following turns. The mana ramp is merely incidental. I feel 15 is low for this card; it should easily go to 20.
Dual Lands
Well I have honestly not been paying attention to dual land prices much - I was surprised to see Rootbound Crag at $4 each on SCG, though. While Dragonskull is going for $8? What's with the discrepancy? Oh I guess it's because Raging Ravine replaced Crag in Jund. Well I expect the reprinting of these dual lands will help lower the prices a little.
Time Warp
6-7 (eBay)
8 (SCG)
9-10 (CFB, CSI)
Time Warp is still in Standard for a little while, so I don't expect prices to drop until a couple months in, particularly since TurboLand is a relevant deck in T2. (Prices are actually still rising, it seems.) But it's not long for this world... I would think about moving eventually.
Vampire Nocturnus
12 (eBay)
15 (All)
Prices steadily dropping on this Vampire lord, and it feels like the Vampire tribe is slowly dying away. This trend will likely continue. There's no telling how low these prices will go.
Master of the Wild Hunt
5 (eBay)
7 (CFB)
8-9 (SCG, CSI)
Master has also been quickly dropping in the past month or so. (I don't think he's coming back.) It was nice having him around, but it's time to say good-bye and watch those prices drop off the map in the next few months or so.